The Art of Uncertainty

National treasure status Part philosophy, part mathematics, part history, [The Art of Uncertainty] is a thoughtful and engaging without being patronising introduction to the mathematics of the unknown * The Times * Delightful... a coup... an invaluable guide to thinking about uncertainty, from a master of the craft... [The Art of Uncertainty] will appeal to many more than just aspiring mathematicians, for its topic is universal * Economist * One of Britains most eminent statisticians [Spiegelhalter] effortlessly shifts from trivial issues like the probability of pulling matching socks out of a drawer to more serious questions about the risk of cancer A useful and persuasive account that gets us to recognise, understand and ultimately accept uncertainty -- Bobby Seagull * Financial Times * Timely... the distinguished statistician shows how simple arithmetic can impose order on the risks that are an integral part of life... One of academias best communicators.. this book.. impose(s) some intellectual order on a subject area that is rife with incomprehension, imprecision, contradiction and creative obfuscation -- John Naughton * Observer * This is, without doubt, the most beautifully crafted book of its kind. These pages are rich with stories from 50 years of hard earned wisdom, each packed with insight and bursting with wit and warmth. When put together there is an important and compelling narrative about uncertainty here, this is a book that challenges our assumptions and offers new perspectives on how to embrace it -- Hannah Fry, author of HELLO WORLD David Spiegelhalter is a national treasure, and this might be his wisest, most humane and most personal book. I urge you to read it -- Tim Harford, author of HOW TO MAKE THE WORLD ADD UP A superbly entertaining overview of uncertainty in all its manifestations -- Professor David J Hand, author of THE IMPROBABILITY PRINCIPLE The Art of Uncertainty contains a lifetime of wisdom from a true master. No one else can do what David Spiegelhalter does, and take this foggiest but most ubiquitous of human problems, then give it such order, rigour, and impeccable judgement. Theres science, philosophy, medicine, statistics life all wrapped in a light and human touch, with one-line insights to die for. I wish it had existed 40 years ago; I suspect itll still be keenly read in 40 years time -- Michael Blastland, co-author of THE TIGER THAT ISN'T This is a brilliant book. A must read for anyone who aspires to think intelligently about the world we live in. Uncertainty is all-pervasive: in our personal lives; in responding to social and political issues; in sorting truth from fiction; and in understanding and mitigating global challenges. David Spiegelhalter provides the tools for thinking about all aspects of uncertainty in a rational way -- Sir Adrian Smith FRS

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter FRS OBE is Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge. His bestselling book The Art of Statistics has been published in eleven languages. He was knighted in 2014 for services to medical statistics, was President of the Royal Statistical Society (2017 2018) and became a Non-Executive Director of the UK Statistics Authority in 2020.