Lessons from Risk Management and Risk Assessment
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Köp båda 2 för 562 kr'Politicians tell us it is a dangerous world but promise absolute security. Responsible policymakers, however, have to move beyond platitudes and learn to cope with risk and uncertainty. This volume forces the reader to think - and ought to be required reading for the next administration.' Nikolas K. Gvosdev, editor of The National Interest
'An innovative and refreshing book. By applying concepts of risk management to the study of international relations, Managing Strategic Surprise not only makes an important intellectual contribution, but also advances new ways of thinking about mainstream foreign policy challenges.' Charles A. Kupchan, Georgetown University and Council on Foreign Relations, author of The End of the American Era
'A superb collection of our best thought leaders and a welcome return of academia to the critical discussion of how to think about strategic surprise in the 21st Century. The authors thoughtfully capture the opportunities of risk management and its associated analytical paradigm as the next generation process to contend with strategic surprise. Of considerable note for further review is the suggestion that the United States has a competitive advantage in information technology and agile military response which could potentially serve as the framework for a successful interactive process to prevent strategic surprise. A must read for all those who seek to integrate risk management and risk assessment into an effective process to prevent strategic surprise for generations to come.' Kenneth A. Minihan, Lieutenant General, United States Air Force (Ret) and Former Director, National Security Agency
'Not still an art, not yet a science we have much to learn about understanding and responding to strategic surprise. From finance to government, strategic surprise has been our most challenging and often our most opportune phenomenon. This book has more enlightenment per page on the subject; it should be read by all of you whose lives, jobs and fortunes depend on fathoming surprise - almost all of us!' Thomas R. Pickering, Former Under Secretary of State and Career Ambassador of the United States
'The authors stare such horrors as nuclear proliferation and mass terrorism in the face and, rather than shuddering, analyze, parse, balance, and judge. Conclusion: don't try to predict the future - it's about insight, not numbers. Bravo, Bravo, Bravo.' R. James Woolsey, Venture Partner, VantagePoint, and former Director of Central Intelligence
'Managing Strategic Surprise is a masterpiece. Cutting across a wide swath of academic disciplines, the book shows how risk management approaches used everywhere from Fortune 500 companies to environmental agencies can improve US national security policy. Whether you're a senior policymaker, a graduate student, or a concerned citizen, this book will change the way you think about post-9/11 threats and how to combat them.' Amy B. Zegart, Associate Professor of Pu...
Paul Bracken is Professor of Management and Political Science at Yale University. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and works with private equity and hedge funds on using scenarios for investment strategies. Ian Bremmer is President of Eurasia Group, the world's largest political risk consultancy. He is also Senior Fellow at the World Policy Institute and a columnist for the Financial Times. His research focuses on states in transition, global political risk, and US national security. David Gordon is Director of Policy Planning at the US Department of State. He previously served as Vice Chairman of the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) and is the former Director of the CIA's Office of Transnational Issues (OTI). He has directed major analytic projects on country-level economic and financial crises, emerging infectious disease risks, global demographic trends, and the changing geopolitics of energy.
1. Introduction Paul Bracken, Ian Bremmer and David Gordon; 2. How to build a warning system Paul Bracken; 3. Intelligence management as risk management: the case of surprise attack Uzi Arad; 4. Nuclear proliferation epidemiology: uncertainty, surprise, and risk management Lewis A. Dunn; 5. Precaution against terrorism Jessica Stern and Jonathan B. Wiener; 6. Defense planning and risk management in the presence of deep uncertainty Paul K. Davis; 7. Managing energy security risks in a changing world Coby van der Linde; 8. What markets miss: political stability frameworks and country risk Preston Keat; 9. The risk of failed state contagion Jeffrey Herbst; 10. Conclusion: managing strategic surprise Paul Bracken, Ian Bremmer and David Gordon.