The Fallacies of Cold War Deterrence and a New Direction

"So many different communities of scholars and policymakers should read Keith Payne's bracing and sensible new book that it's difficult to know where to begin sending copies." -- H-NET Book Review "Payne offers an interesting empirically-based methodology in an attempt to make deterrence a more viable policy than it has been heretofore." -- Virginia Quarterly Review "Payne is so persuasive that readers will cringe, ever after, when they encounter categorical statements such as 'the exact same kinds of nuclear deterrence that have always worked will continue to work.'" -- Air and Space Power "Payne forces the reader to recognize how much of America's thinking about military strategy is trapped in the categories of Cold War 'deterrence theory.' His fascinating book, filled with excellent material and provocative argument, offers both a strong academic contribution and much policy relevant analysis. Happily, it is well written, highly accessible." -- William E. Odom "Offers a more comprehensive and empirical methodology for formulating U.S. deterrence postures." -- Military Review "Not many books have the potential to make the difference between war and peace: Keith Payne's latest expedition into deterrence country is one such." -- Colin S. Gray "Cogently and carefully charts a fresh path through the badly overgrown and cluttered thicket of modern strategic thinking." -- R. James Woolsey "An essential text for understanding the reasoning behind the administration's push for missile defense. (Asked whom to talk to about the current state of deterrence theory, one nuclear expert quipped, 'If you talked to Keith Payne, you've talked to everyone.')." -- National Review

Keith B. Payne, president of the National Institute for Public Policy, adjunct professor at Georgetown University, and editor-in-chief of Comparative Strategy, is the author of Deterrence in the Second Nuclear Age.