Social-Behavioral Modeling for Complex Systems

Paul K. Davis, PhD, is a senior principal researcher at the RAND Corporation and a professor of policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. Angela O'Mahony, PhD, is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation and a professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. Jonathan Pfautz, PhD, is a Program Manager at DARPA.

Foreword xxvii List of Contributors xxxi About the Editors xli About the Companion Website xliii Part I Introduction and Agenda 1 1 Understanding and Improving the Human Condition: A Vision of the Future for Social-Behavioral Modeling 3 Jonathan Pfautz, Paul K. Davis, and Angela OMahony Challenges 5 About This Book 10 References 13 2 Improving Social-Behavioral Modeling 15 Paul K. Davis and Angela OMahony Aspirations 15 Classes of Challenge 17 Inherent Challenges 17 Selected Specific Issues and the Need for Changed Practices 20 Strategy for Moving Ahead 32 Social-Behavioral Laboratories 39 Conclusions 41 Acknowledgments 42 References 42 3 Ethical and Privacy Issues in Social-Behavioral Research 49 Rebecca Balebako, Angela OMahony, Paul K. Davis, and Osonde Osoba Improved Notice and Choice 50 Usable and Accurate Access Control 52 Anonymization 53 Avoiding Harms by Validating Algorithms and Auditing Use 55 Challenge and Redress 56 Deterrence of Abuse 57 And Finally Thinking Bigger About What Is Possible 58 References 59 Part II Foundations of Social-Behavioral Science 63 4 Building on Social Science: Theoretic Foundations for Modelers 65 Benjamin Nyblade, Angela OMahony, and Katharine Sieck Background 65 Atomistic Theories of Individual Behavior 66 Social Theories of Individual Behavior 75 Theories of Interaction 80 From Theory to Data and Data to Models 88 Building Models Based on Social Scientific Theories 92 Acknowledgments 94 References 94 5 How Big and How Certain? A New Approach to Defining Levels of Analysis for Modeling Social Science Topics 101 Matthew E. Brashears Introduction 101 Traditional Conceptions of Levels of Analysis 102 Incompleteness of Levels of Analysis 104 Constancy as the Missing Piece 107 Putting It Together 111 Implications for Modeling 113 Conclusions 116 Acknowledgments 116 References 116 6 Toward Generative Narrative Models of the Course and Resolution of Conflict 121 Steven R. Corman, Scott W. Ruston, and Hanghang Tong Limitations of Current Conceptualizations of Narrative 122 A Generative Modeling Framework 125 Application to a Simple Narrative 126 Real-World Applications 130 Challenges and Future Research 133 Conclusion 135 Acknowledgment 137 Locations, Events, Actions, Participants, and Things in the Three Little Pigs 137 Edges in the Three Little Pigs Graph 139 References 142 7 A Neural Network Model of Motivated Decision-Making in Everyday Social Behavior 145 Stephen J. Read and Lynn C. Miller Introduction 145 Overview 146 Theoretical Background 147 Neural Network Implementation 151 Conclusion 159 References 160 8 Dealing with Culture as Inherited Information 163 Luke J. Matthews Galtons Problem as a Core Feature of Cultural Theory 163 How to Correct for Treelike Inheritance of Traits Across Groups 167 Dealing with Non independence in Less Treelike Network Structures 173 Future Directions for Formal Modeling of Culture 178 Acknowledgments 181 References 181 9 Social Media, Global Connections, and Information Environments: Building Complex Understandings of Multi-Actor Interactions 187 Gene Cowherd and Daniel Lende A New Setting of Hyperconnectivity 187 The Information Environment 188 Social Media in the Information Environment 189 Integrative Approaches to Understanding Human Behavior 190 The Ethnographic Examples 192 Conclusion 202 References 204 10 Using Neuroimaging to Predict Behavior: An Overview with a Focus on the Moderating Role of Sociocultural Context 205 Steven H. Tompson, Emily B. Falk, Danielle S. Bassett, and Jean M. Vettel Introduction 205 The Brain-as-Predictor Approach 206 Predicting Individual Behaviors 208 Interpreting Associations Between Brain Activation and Behavior 210 Predicting Aggregate Out-of-Sample Group Outcomes 211 Predicting Social Interactions and Peer Influence 214 Sociocul