Predicting the Future in Science, Economics, and Politics

Edited by Frank Whelon Wayman, University of Michigan, Dearborn, US, the late Paul R. Williamson, formerly Global Vision, Inc., US, Solomon Polachek, Binghamton University, SUNY, US and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, New York University, US

Contents: Preface and Introduction: Overview of Why this Book Matters Frank W. Wayman, Paul R. Williamson, Solomon W. Polachek and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita PART I. THE PROMISE OF GLOBAL FORECASTING 1. Scientific Prediction and the Human Condition Frank W. Wayman 2. Organizing Diverse Contributions to Global Forecasting Paul R. Williamson PART II. HUMAN NATURE AND PREDICTION Editors' Introduction to Part II Frank W. Wayman 3. Consilience: the Role of Human Nature in the Emergence of Social Artifacts Edward O. Wilson 4. Darwin's Challenges and the Future of Human Society Richard Alexander PART III. THE VALUE OF THE FUTURE Editors' Introduction to Part III Frank W. Wayman 5. Properly Discounting the Future: Using Predictions in an Uncertain World J. Doyne Farmer and John Geanakoplos 6. Long-Term Policy Problems: Definition, Origins, and Responses Detlef F. Sprinz 7. Explaining and Predicting Future Environmental Scarcities and Conflict Urs Luterbacher, Dominic Rohner and Ellen Wiegandt PART IV. SOME PROBLEMS ADDRESSED VIA MODELING Editors' Introduction to Part IV Frank W. Wayman 8. Forecasting nuclear weapons proliferation: a hazard model Atsushi Tago and J. David Singer 9. Forecasting Political Developments with the Help of Financial Markets Gerald Schneider PART V. THE GLOBAL SYSTEM AND THE POSSIBILITIES OF PREDICTION Editors' Introduction to Part V Frank W. Wayman 10. Glimpses of the Future John Holland 11. Forecasting the Evolution of Cultural Collisions Using Annealing-Nucleation Models Myron S. Karasik 12. Power Structure Fluctuations in the "Longue Duree" of the World System David Wilkinson 13. From Altruism to the Future Frequency of War: How Consilient Explanation Differs from Prediction Frank W. Wayman 14. System Change and Richardson Processes: Application of Social Field Theory Paul R. Williamson 15. Computational Dynamic Modeling of the Global State Space Paul R. Williamson PART VI. NEW APPROACHES 16. Scientific Revolutions and the Advancement of Explanation and Prediction Frank W. Wayman 17. Innovations in Forecasting the Future that One Can Learn from Prediction Solomon W. Polachek 18. Predicting the Future to Shape the Future Bruce Bueno de Mesquita Index